Trump vs Hillary Odds Analysis
Unless something very strange happens, it will be Trump vs. Hillary in the general election. This election cycle is so bizarre and there is such an unusually high amount of extreme variables that it’s premature to guess who the winner will be. Anyone who says they know for sure, and anyone talking about landslide victories at this point are being overly exuberant or irrational.
Below are the factors involved in a Orange Menace vs. Lizard Queen race, and which of the two they favor. I will not be factoring in the slight but nonzero chance that the Lizard Queen will be indicted and thrown in jail where she belongs. As I’ve been saying for almost a year, if that happens everything changes and it becomes an entirely new ballgame. For the rest of this article I’m operating under the assumption that won’t happen.
Trump and Hillary are two of the most hated people in any US presidential election in polling history, and they’re hated about equally. It’s a sign of declining West when out of 320 million people, the two who end up as your only two options for president are this despised by the populace.
One slight variable in this is Bill Clinton, one of the most charismatic and beloved presidents in my lifetime, second only to Reagan. Americans love this shyster jerkwad and his presence in the campaign will definitely help offset Hillary’s grating personality. I don’t think it will tip the scales over Trump much though, and Trump has already created some very effective ads against Bill that may work.
Trump worshipers keep saying that as the campaign continues, Trump will purposely start acting more “presidential.” Based on Trump’s recent behavior, even well after after effectively winning the Republican nomination, I find this very unlikely. I think he will continue to be the same bombastic jerk he’s always been, because that’s what he wants. Trump is Alpha Male 1.0 to the extreme, and emotional control is not the Alpha 1.0’s strong suit. Much like the Jack Nicholson character in the movie A Few Good Men, Trump won’t want to tone it down, even if he realizes he should. So he won’t.
Moreover, despite the fact that the Lizard Queen is so unlikable, Trump’s image is a tough guy is strong but imperfect. His refusal to release his tax returns makes him look like a coward, especially after criticizing Romney for the same thing, who did release his tax returns, well before this point in the election last time around). Last week, his sudden retreat from debating Bernie Sanders also made Trump look like a real pussy; I was surprised he made such a weak move, publicly saying on national TV he would debate Bernie and then chickening out, and alike to Hillary who did the same a few weeks back.
2. Cultural Acceptance
As I’ve been saying for years, America is now a left wing nation, as much as that bothers some people to hear, and this is regardless of our wars or Fox News. Every survey clearly shows that over the last 10-20 years, the average American has shifted to the left on literally every political issue there is with the exception of abortion.
Though Trump isn’t a real conservative like Ted Cruz, he’s still at least perceived that way. His right wing stances like lowering taxes, helping business, and being “mean” to women and immigrants isn’t going to fly with the majority of today’s mostly left-leaning independents. These people are going to find it much easier to vote for Hillary, despite her negatives.
Advantage: significant advantage to Hillary
3. Campaign Skill
This one isn’t even close. Trump is master at marketing and persuasion the likes of which American politics has never seen, while Hillary’s campaign is making a steady stream of comedically and shockingly stupid mistakes. Trump and his campaign have been kicking Hillary’s ass for several weeks now, and this will likely continue. It’s pathetic as it is hilarious.
Advantage: significant advantage to Trump
Trump does fantastic with white men. It’s no contest there. The problem is that white men in the US are now a minority, representing only about 30% of the country. White men are vastly outnumbered by women, Hispanics, blacks, and Asians, all of whom clearly prefer the Lizard Queen by large margins regardless of her negatives.
Add to that young people, single women, single mothers, gays, and left-wing white men. This means that demographically speaking, Hillary absolutely dominates Trump in a general election. (It’s true that Trump is doing better in the polls with minorities than Romney ever did, but the Lizard Queen’s margin over him is still massive.)
At the moment, the national polls are shifting slightly to Trump’s favor, but that’s only because Trump isn’t battling anyone on the Republican side and Hillary is still battling Bernie (even though Comrade Bernie technically lost a long time ago). Once Bernie is out and his supports go nuclear and then calm down, the majority of them will support Hillary as leftists rally do when facing a Big Evil Republican™, and the polls will likely shift in her (slight) favor once again.
The only possible way Trump could win against Hillary (outside of Hillary going to jail) is if white men suddenly voted in huge, massive, unprecedented, historic numbers to overcome all the demographic realities above. I just don’t see this happening, particularity considering that the majority of white men under 30 are pro-socialism left-wingers who would never vote for Trump in a million years. So now you’re just down to over 30 white men. Unlikely.
The popularity of Trump and Bernie Sanders clearly shows that Americans are (rightfully) unhappy with their slowly collapsing society. It’s a shame they weren’t this unhappy in the 90s when America and the West still had a chance to avert disaster, but that ship has sailed.
Trump and Hillary are both equally hated, but Hillary represents the status quo, even going so far as ridiculously positioning herself as Obama’s third term. Trump represents massive change (real or perceived). In the year of the outsider, this clearly helps Trump.
However, this anti-establishment sentiment won’t overcome most people’s core political beliefs. You’re simply not going to see millions of angry Bernie voters actually vote for Trump in a general election against of Hillary, regardless of what they’re threatening. American leftists are leftists first, revolutionaries second. The same can be said of American conservatives as well.
As at this point, based on the above factors, I’m placing the odds of a presidential win at about 60% for Hillary, 40% for Trump. This may change in the coming months, but as of right now, that’s how I see it based on the above factors.
I have said before that I don’t see how any Republican candidate can win any future presidential election the US because of new demographic realities (item number 4 above). However, I’ve always added to that, “unless that person shifts to the left and stops being a conservative.”
This is Trump to a T. Trump is not a conservative. He’s a nationalist. There’s a big difference. Trump may want to build a wall and keep all the Muslims out, but he also is for government healthcare, is vehemently opposed to free trade, supports government funding of services like Planned Parenthood, wants to crack down on political speech, loves eminent domain, wants to raise taxes on some of the rich, loudly proclaims that George W. Bush lied to get us into the war in Iraq, and has many other leftist views. He also held mountains of left-wing social views for many years and only changed them right before running for president.
As I’ve said before, and I’m sticking with this, you will never see a conservative US president ever again. The only way a Republican can win the presidency in left-wing 21st century declining America is to have lots of left-wing views. This is the only reason Trump has a chance of winning. Enjoy the decline!
I will again state for the record that I don’t support either of these candidates, both would make terrible presidents, and America’s decline will not be stopped regardless of who wins (though I have admitted that if Trump wins it would be a good thing because the elites wouldn’t get their way for once).
Both the Orange Menace and the Lizard Queen support big government, corporatism, NSA surveillance of your phone and email, the Federal Reserve and Janet Yellen, the military industrial complex, bank bailouts, the Patriot Act, and numerous other problems directly contributing to America’s decline. Hell, they even do business out of the same fucking address. The Lizard Queen is a corrupt, warmongering, left-wing corporatist. Trump is a big-government authoritarian and nationalist corporatist.
Screw both of these people.