The most entertaining presidential election I’ve ever seen continues! Time to lay odds on the Republican winner.

First I’ll repeat what I said earlier, in that we will have no idea who the winners of the primaries are (on either side) until March 15th at the very earliest. So I’m not “calling it” for anyone. I’m just laying odds, as usual.

Amazingly, based on all the data I’m seeing, Donald Trump has a 70% chance of winning the Republican nomination. Perhaps 80%, but I’m not willing to go quite that high. Yet.

As of today, here are the factors that favor Trump:

  • According to the polls, he has won literally every debate the Republicans have had. I’ve never seen this happen. Trump’s outsider status and uber-Alpha demeanor is resonating with angry Republicans despite his massive and plentiful negatives. Even in the last debate where Robot Rubio actually rattled Trump a little, Trump still won the debate (according to the polls). He even wins debates when he makes huge, left-wing attack statements like we were lied into war and Bush didn’t keep us safe (both of which are true by the way).
  • Every time he makes a controversial statement or gaff, his poll numbers either go up or stay the same. So far, he’s been immune to the usual things that sink traditional candidates.
  • Votes that would normally be going to one establishment candidate (Rubio) are being artificially split by Ted Cruz remaining in the race. Normally, Trump would be facing a very difficult battle between himself and one guy with all the elite’s support and votes. But because psycho attention whore Cruz won’t quit, he’s sucking a good 40-50% of Rubio’s votes from him, making it easier for a Trump win.
  • He currently has far more delegates than any other candidate by far. It’s not even close. That doesn’t matter much until Super Tuesday, but…
  • Most importantly, on Super Tuesday tomorrow, Trump is ahead in the polls in 8 out of the 11 states voting. Isn’t that amazing? In most of those states, he’s not just ahead, but he’s leading by big, double-digit leads. If someone like Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, or Marco Rubio had this kind of status at this date, the entire mainstream media would be declaring the election over and all the other candidates would be leaving the race. But since the elites hate Trump, you’re not hearing any of this stuff, and the battle rages on.

Why am I saying 70% and not 100% or 90% like many excited Trump supporters? Well, it’s because I’m objective. Here’s the factors currently against Trump, and they aren’t small:

  • Though so far he hasn’t been taken down by controversy, that doesn’t mean he can’t. Trump has numerous, and I mean numerous time bombs about things he’s said and done both recently and in his distant past that could sink him once the elites start to dig into his past and really go after him.
  • His unfavorable ratings are sky-high, more than (I believe) any other presidential candidate in modern history. Some people love him, but a hell of a lot of people hate him, including Republicans. He strongly appeals to an angry, nationalist, right wing demographic, but as I’ve said many times, the US is a left-wing country now, and that demographic is now a minority. I’m also referring to many Republicans when I say “left-wing.” The concept that modern-day Republicans are for small government is laughable.
  • The Ted Cruz thing swings both ways. The instant Ted Cruz leaves the race (the odds are good he will before Rubio), Robot Rubio’s vote count instantly doubles, or close to it, making him a threat to Trump in ways he isn’t right now. The reverse applies if Rubio leaves the race before Cruz does.
  • Lastly, as I’ve been saying all along, the elites will do everything in their considerable power to stop Trump, including breaking the rules and the law. So far, the elites have been wasting their time taking down the other candidates and backing the biggest beta male on Earth (Jeb Bush). Now, in the last week or so, this slumbering giant has just started to train its cannons directly at Trump. They have a long time to take Trump down (until June!). The elites have won every presidential election in my lifetime, and done so easily, so they can’t be counted out.

I will reiterate that I don’t support Trump. He’s an authoritarian and a nationalist, both of which are the opposite of individual freedom and small goverment which is what I prefer. The US is also an unrepairable sinking ship regardless of who becomes president at this point, including Trump. But I do admit that having the elites lose would be a good thing.

I love the entertainment! All this Trump drama, and Bernie, and the Lizard Queen…it’s a front row seat at the biggest disaster show in history. George Carlin was right.

26 thoughts on “Odds Now Favor Trump

  1. I’m pretty shocked that Trump has gotten as far as he has. If nothing else, this has certainly been an interesting election.

    Do you think the liberal civil war will hurt Hilary’s chances at all? That whole black lives matter thing the other day (where the protestor interrupted Hilary’s speech to call her out), I’m seeing a lot of people on social media criticize her as being racist toward black people. Do you think the people critical of her right now will do a 180, completely supporting her when/if she gets the nomination?

    And considering how loudly pro-authoritarian Trump is, how much do you think Trump will expand the powers of the government while he’s in office?

  2. Do you think the liberal civil war will hurt Hilary’s chances at all?

    Yes and it already has. Bernie has bit into her ass, hard.

    Do you think the people critical of her right now will do a 180, completely supporting her when/if she gets the nomination?

    Of course they will. I already talked about that a few posts ago.

    People forget that left-wingers are crusaders. They’re more collectivist than the right. The left always mobilize, get their asses out there, and vote, period, end of story. Right-wingers only vote if they really love their options. If they don’t, they stay home and complain instead of voting. This is why the left usually has the advantage in these scenarios. (Not that it matters at this point.)

    Moreover, black people LOVE the Lizard Queen and will vote for her in mass numbers no matter what a few angry activists say.

    And considering how loudly pro-authoritarian Trump is, how much do you think Trump will expand the powers of the government while he’s in office?

    Guaranteed, yes. Like George W. Bush before him, he will throw freedom-lovers a bone or two like reducing taxes a little, then at the same time he’ll massively expand goverment power and spending like a madman. Conservatives are not for small government.

  3. Moreover, black people LOVE the Lizard Queen and will vote for her in mass numbers no matter what a few angry activists say.

    Jesus. this statement cannot be more true. More so, they love her husband even more.
    My parents look at me funny even if I mention tax-cut for the rich.

    Rubio is really making an ass out of himself trying to play Trump’s game. I saw him as an intelligent and well spoken guy who was gonna fade out and endorse the top Republican nominee. He actually seems more egotistical than Trump. If that’s even possible.
    The only difference between Trump and Rubio is simply a track record and the perseverance that Trump has which not many people in the world have.
    His deal making behind the scenes is insane.
    George Ross wrote an awesome book on his negotiating skills. Trump Style Negotiation.
    You Americans need a Deal-Maker in the big house. Everyone is making fun of y’all.

  4. A Trump/Sanders ticket would be unbeatable. Don’t forget that the VP has one of the most important jobs in the American political system – presiding over the Senate. You want a senator as VP, someone who knows how the system works. Trump has repeatedly said that Sanders is right about various things – money, corruption, trade. And Sanders cannot win the Democratic nomination: the Democratic primary system is far too corrupt.

  5. I’m surprised that you still think that the elites are still a real threat at this point. I was under the impression that the media was their main weapon to destroy people with. Now that Trump looks to be pretty unharmable through media means, it really seems like the elites are all bark and no bite – actually toothless. I’ve heard the term paper tiger thrown around a lot lately about the media, and it seems like it’s a pretty fitting term at this point for the media and the elites as well.

  6. Randy – they recently murdered a United States Supreme Court Justice. Don’t underestimate them.

  7. On top of those factor favoring Trump, there is also the fact that the competition was relatively weak for the nomination. None of the candidates strikes me as particularly qualified IMO. Rubio is way too young. Ted is too conservative to be anywhere near electable in the general, etc.

  8. I’m surprised that you still think that the elites are still a real threat at this point.

    And the fact you think they aren’t means their Societal Programming is working on you.

    On top of those factor favoring Trump, there is also the fact that the competition was relatively weak for the nomination.

    Agree. For the last several elections, the Republicans have run some amazingly bad candidates (Romney, McCain, etc).

  9. So what do you think their power is? Other than election fixing, the only thing I could imagine would be an assassination attempt – but I think that’s starting to edge into conspiracy theory territory.

    Either way, Trump has too many eyes on him right now – there’s no way they could do anything to him without massively drawing attention to it.

  10. I thought Trump was a joke until I watched the first GOP debate back this summer. As soon as I saw that, I’ve been convinced that Trump was going to win not just the GOP nomination but the general election.

    If Hillary is the Democratic nominee, Trump will destroy her. I’m seriously afraid of that first debate. He will tear her to shreds. Old ladies and a few beta males and cloistered liberals will watch the debate and think he came off like a big scary moronic bullying jerk, and they will be shocked, just SHOCKED AND APPALLED to find out a day later that he’s now even more popular with the masses.

    If Bernie was the nominee, which is sadly unlikely, he would do much better in the debates. Trump would still probably win but there’s a small chance Bernie could beat him. I would LOVE to see a Bernie v. Trump debate. Trump is all ego, and ego is a powerful thing, but the one thing it has a hard time fighting against is a person with almost no ego, which is Bernie. When it’s ego vs ego, like it is with Trump against Cruz or Rubio or Hillary, Trump will prevail because his is the biggest.

    I think the biggest thing this election reflects is that the mainstream media no longer gets to frame the national conversation, and it’s rapidly losing its power. This is the election you get in the internet age. No one cares what the CNN/Fox News/MSNBC anchors and major news institutions have to say. They used to control the dialogue, and now regular people have gotten used to having a voice.

  11. Caleb, I would love to know your numbers during Clinton vs Trump.
    Should be an excellent opportunity to pick off followers.

    This is going to be a extremely nasty Presidential race.

    PS: I recommend your stuff to anyone who will listen.

  12. So what do you think their power is?

    What power do the elites have? Are you really asking that question? What power does a 2 trillion dollar a year federal goverment plus about 100 billionaires have? Well, let’s see. Complete control of the entire mainstream media (and much of the internet media). Complete control of the voting process and machines in all 50 states. Complete control off the delegate counts in both parties (that they can use to edge people out of the race even if they got the votes, as they did with Ron Paul). CIA, NSA, FBI, etc, and private investigative wings of numerous Fortune 500 companies that they can use to dig up shit on anyone they want. The ability to start wars, crises, and other military actions anywhere on the Earth to divert attention and/or change the narrative. Shall I go on? I could but I’m getting tired of typing.

    If you think the goverment plus 100 billionaires (or the equivalent) aren’t a threat to one lone billionaire, you’re being irrational.

    Again I will repeat he’s at least 70% likely to become the Republican nominee regardless.

    If Hillary is the Democratic nominee, Trump will destroy her. I’m seriously afraid of that first debate. He will tear her to shreds

    I think you might be right. I’m really, really looking forward to Trump tearing the Lizard Queen a new one (if it happens).

    Caleb, I would love to know your numbers during Clinton vs Trump.

    I’m going to follow this entire thing until it’s conclusion. It’s great theater.

    If it really is a Clinton/Trump race, never before will Americans have faced two more hated people in one election. Clinton and Trump are so strongly reviled by so many people, it’s going to be very interesting to watch my fellow psychotic and suicidal Americans figure out which Evil they’re going to vote for to further destroy the country. Enjoy the decline!

    This is going to be a extremely nasty Presidential race.

    That’s nothing new. They always are.

  13. I bet he will name a woman, and better yet, a minority woman as his running mate. I would be shocked if he doesn’t. And then he will clean the floor with Hillary in the general election. If he’s smart enough to name a latino or black female running mate he could win all 50 states.

  14. If Trump wants to win, he should know better than to call for an auditing of the Federal Reserve

  15. Sorry, should’ve been more specific. I meant, what power do you think they would currently have over Trump specifically that they haven’t attempted yet.

    They’re already auditing him, they’ve already tried to stomp him into the dirt with the mass media, I’m sure they’ve dug into his past already (granted he could have some worse skeletons in his closet than what we’ve seen so far and I’m sure he does, but everything that’s been revealed so far doesn’t seem to have damaged his reputation at all).

    So yeah, the only things left I can think of any elites attempting is election fraud (through the means you mentioned and I’m sure countless others), or assassination attempt/set up weak security for him or something so a crazy gunman/terrorist can try to kill him. But I’d think that the powers that be attempting anything so blatant (including the election fraud options) would frighten the tax livestock — err, U.S. citizens, and wouldn’t be attempted…of course, the government’s never been known for being particularly far-sighted with their actions and the consequences they might bring.

  16. I would love to see Trump elected (mainly for the fact that most SJW’s heads would explode) but I just can’t see past the Lizard Queen. I think the elite will steal another election and railroad her into the White House. Anyone else with Hitlery’s past would be looking at a life sentence in jail. How on earth can the wife of a former president be eligible for the presidency herself? It’s crazy.

  17. I meant, what power do you think they would currently have over Trump specifically that they haven’t attempted yet.

    Everything I said. You’re not understanding that the elites haven’t been focusing on Trump yet. They haven’t even done opposition research on him yet. Over the last few months they’ve been focused on taking out the other candidates so the field narrows to just Trump +1. Now they’re starting to focus on Trump. You’ll see this over the next few months. Just watch.

    I would love to see Trump elected (mainly for the fact that most SJW’s heads would explode) but I just can’t see past the Lizard Queen. I think the elite will steal another election and railroad her into the White House

    At this point, I think that’s what’s most likely in a Trump/Hillary race, yes.

  18. Hmmm, interesting. That’s actually frightening to think about then, considering how hard it seems like Trump’s been getting it in the media. Do you have any other examples of the elites fully turning their cannons on someone and what they did specifically?

    And also, do you think Trump might just do a 180 if he gets elected into office and actually just start implementing laws that the elites want, circumventing the need for them to go full on to take him down?

  19. “How on earth can the wife of a former president be eligible for the presidency herself?”

    Sparks, this question makes no sense. Why would family members of the president be excluded from the presidency? Can you elaborate?

  20. Do you have any other examples of the elites fully turning their cannons on someone and what they did specifically?

    Howard Dean comes to mind. Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, and Raul Paul less so. There are many others if I really think about it.

    do you think Trump might just do a 180 if he gets elected into office and actually just start implementing laws that the elites want

    No. I think he won’t be able to do much as president because both parties will be blocking most of the things he wants to do. It would be the same thing with a Bernie Sanders presidency. Neither Bernie nor Trump will actually be able to do 80% of the shit they’re talking about right now. The system is against them, even as president.

    Why would family members of the president be excluded from the presidency?

    I think he’s implying that being married to a president doesn’t make you qualified to be president, or even run for president. Of course he’s right but the elites don’t care.

  21. Laughed out loud when I read, “the biggest beta male on earth (Jeb Bush)”.
    That was the first thing I thought when I saw him for the first time giving a speech talking about how he loves his wife and loves mexicans.

  22. Of course Caleb, as I have said before, if Clinton is charged by the FBI then the circus could become an LSD trip.

    The latest? Apparently the Justice Department (yup, Obama’s Justice Department) has granted immunity to one of Clinton’s staffers to get him to work with the FBI on this case. He is the guy who set up her server for her. That is a sign of very bad things in Clinton’s future.
    If she does get charged, or even one of her intimates gets charged, all bets are off. God knows what happens then. This development though goes right to the Lizard Queen herself. She should be terrified.

    Of course, with the Clintons who knows? Who knows what dirty laundry and on whom is stored in their secret archives of doom.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-private-email_us_56d7a0cae4b0000de403684f

  23. Laughed out loud when I read, “the biggest beta male on earth (Jeb Bush)”.
    That was the first thing I thought when I saw him for the first time giving a speech talking about how he loves his wife and loves mexicans.

    Jeb Bush’s performance in these campaigns has been stunningly, shockingly bad. I’ve never seen anything like it. Beta in the extreme.

    if Clinton is charged by the FBI then the circus could become an LSD trip.

    I’ve said the same but the odds of her personally getting in trouble for any of this is quite low.

    Again, the elites.

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