How wrong can political pundits be? Very wrong.

Think minorities hate Trump and love Bernie Sanders because that’s what all the pundits say? Then you would be wrong. In Bernie’s case, very wrong.

Let’s look at Trump first.

There aren’t a lot of polls that sort their questions by race, and when they do there are sufficiently few non-white Republicans that they have trouble getting a good sample size. Nevertheless, the ones we have suggest that Donald Trump’s supporters are about as diverse as any other Republican’s and maybe moreso.

An August YouGov poll with a sample of 30 Hispanic Republicans finds Trump in the lead with that demographic, getting 28% of the vote to runner-up Ben Carson’s 19%. A Gravis poll with about 40 Hispanic Republicans finds Trump with 37% of their vote to runner-up Marco Rubio’s 20%. A Nevada poll also finds Trump leading among Hispanics in that state, though I don’t know their Hispanic Republican sample size. And finally, head-to-head matchups of Trump vs. Clinton show Trump outperforming some past Republican candidates, including Mitt Romney and George Bush, in the share of Hispanic votes he would likely receive.

Probably more useful are the head-to-head Trump vs. Hillary polls, which survey all blacks (not just Republicans). One finds Trump doing shockingly well and tripling Romney’s (admittedly minuscule, admittedly decreased by opposing Obama) level of support among black voters, but the Washington Post is skeptical and cites others with less extreme results – although even most of those show Trump doing at least as well as Romney and other historical Republicans.

In other words, the media narrative that Trump is doing some kind of special appeal-to-white-voters voodoo is unsupported by any polling data.

Now let’s deal with Bernie, where things get even more interesting.

Only 13% of Hispanics support Sanders, compared to 63% for Hillary. And only 4% of blacks support Sanders, compared to 64% for Hillary!

CNN finds that the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat among whites (48-47) but that Hillary has an overwhelming advantage among blacks (84-7).

This explains a couple of otherwise mysterious things. How is Sanders on track to win in Iowa and New Hampshire when he is losing so badly nationally? Well, because Iowa and New Hampshire are two of the whitest states in the country. And how come I keep hearing people say “I’m sure Sanders will win, because even though the media and Big Business support Hillary, everybody I know supports Sanders”? Well, are those people white? Is their entire friend group white? Do they live in very strongly white areas? Then Sanders probably has much higher support among their friends and neighbors than he does nationally.

But the current election brings all three splits into near-alignment. The quasi-socialists, whites, and enlightened professionals generally support Sanders. The social justice activists, nonwhites, and poor people generally support Clinton – this bizarre situation of the guy most vocal about helping the least fortunate getting support from everyone except the least fortunate themselves.

Isn’t that amazing? This means that if you believe the standard left-wing punditry that you need the support of minorities to win elections, then nationwide there is literally no chance of Bernie beating Hillary. None!

Left-wingers are treating Bernie like some kind of Messiah (sound familair?) but according to the data, all this hoopla about Bernie Sanders is utterly useless.

It’s almost as if blacks and Hispanics are programmed to automatically support anyone with “Clinton” as their last name, no matter how evil they are. Read the rest of the above linked article for sources and further analysis. Very interesting.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Bernie Sanders is the left-wing Ron Paul. He’s an old guy who’s ideologically pure, who turns on a lot of young people, and who has exactly zero chance of being elected president. This is because A) the elites won’t allow it and B) the voting populace is too irrational. I mean, I don’t want Bernie, but if you put a gun to my head I’d take Bernie the Socialist over Hillary the Lizard Queen. But both the elites and the lower-class disagree with me, so soon it will be All Hail Our New Scaly Ruler (unless something unusual happens).

I loved Ron Paul, but even with a guy I love, when he was running I was telling my libertarian buddies he had no chance in hell of winning, so it was pointless to get excited. And I was right. And I’m right about Bernie not winning too.

Whatever! The decline is getting really fun to watch!

4 thoughts on “Minorities Hate Bernie Sanders…but Like Trump?

  1. “Bernie Sanders is the left-wing Ron Paul” that is exactly it. I never really thought of that. I have really been scratching my head at this Bernie phenomenon. How has this happened that an avowed socialist can be pulling the Hilldabeast further to the left. 10 years ago, or maybe even 5 a socialist could never pull crowds. Now these people are saying they agree with everything he says. Even so called intelligent people like Bill Mahr. What has happened to logical thinking in this country? Is it the new math? If he were to win, which I agree he has no chance, those who voted for him would soon realize their mistake as the producers who pay their freight decided a 90% tax is not sufficient reward to risk capital and find a more friendly environment. Let the mass exodus begin.

  2. Hardcore left-wing thinking is so alien to me that I don’t really have a solid answer to that question, but based on a few studies I’ve seen, my guess is that they honestly don’t care.

    In other words, a reasonably intelligent, *hardcore* left-winger might register somewhere in the back of his brain that doing things like raising the national minimum wage to 15 or 20 dollars an hour, raising taxes on the rich to 80 or 90 percent, and giving free college to everyone in the country might actually damage the economy and his own livelihood long-term, BUT, he would be so happy in the short-term to watch all those Evil Rich People finally “get it,” and all those Innocent Poor People finally get the “justice” they deserve, the fact the economy takes a nosedive a few years later doesn’t actually matter to him as much…even if he personally suffers.

    It’s just a guess, but I honestly think it’s something like that. Remember, Obama was re-elected in the middle of a bad economy, something that has never happened to an incumbent president in my lifetime.

    America has entered into a new era in the last few years, into a condition it’s never found itself in before. Nothing is going to make sense to rational thinkers. And it’s only just beginning.

  3. See thats why you’re common thought is wrong.

    Sanders isnt the left’s ron paul

    Ron paul is a libertarian who cant get squat done.

    Just because the socialist is getting some support from proto-libertarians and faux liberals ,even poor ass republicans (mostly white people) the strongest demographic he is resonating with that doesnt have an entrenched history in voting for “sides” are independents and students. Mostly the ones of color. Its only the older folks who need to learn there are an actual alternative to the clinton machine.

    Trying to think about this rationally is only gonna find yourself in a pit. People are tired about establishment politics, everything you thought you knew gets thrown out the door when you come to terms with this fact and realize that Sanders is an Independent who has a strong history of making compromises that actually stimulate the economy. He did is several times over in vermont. I suggest you look at his record.

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/10/31/socialist-even-conservative-could-love-burlington-mayor-sanders-was-able-out-republican-republicans/SCmh2TLifXxXRPFKC8NMjO/story.html

    Espousing Nate Silver era logic in this political season is gonna end up with your pants pulled down to the floor.

    America is moving from inaction to action rallying around the cry of “leveling the playing field” they’re tired of our democracy becoming an oligarchy and responding to just that

    http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/why-bernie-sanders-starting-attract-conservative-voters

  4. Fantasize whatever you like. Bernie Sanders has no chance in hell of winning, unless Hillary is indicted, then I admit Sanders has some chance, but even then that will only be because a quirk of history, not because “Americans have finally woke up.” They haven’t. They’re still asleep.

Leave a Reply

To leave a comment, enter your comment below. PLEASE make sure to read the commenting rules before commenting, since failure to follow these rules means your comment may be deleted. Also please do not use the username “Anonymous” or “Anon” or any variation thereof (makes things too confusing).

Off-topic comments are allowed, but Caleb will ignore those.

Caleb responds to comments in person, but he only does so on the two most current blog articles.

Related Posts

Begin typing your search term above and press enter to search.

Back To Top