Laying Odds on Trump Impeachment
The embarrassing circus that the United States has become rolls ever onward towards collapse.
There’s a lot to unpack here, but I’ll give you a very quick summary that admittedly is light on details (if you want those, you can always Google them). A while back, Mike Flynn, President Trump’s national security advisor, was found to be passing secrets to the Russians. He was bounced out of office. Trump apparently has been panicking over this, and keeps trying to contact Flynn for reasons unknown. The theory is that he knows more details which could get Trump in big trouble.
Trump’s advisors keep telling him that he can’t talk to Flynn, as this would be witness tampering. Oops.
On Feb 14th, Trump asked FBI head Comey to stop the Russian investigation. I’ll give you the exact (alleged) quote:
I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go.
Delusional, angry left-wingers say that this is obstruction of justice and Trump must be thrown in prison immediately. Delusional, angry Trump worshippers say this is NOT asking Comey to stop anything and that clearly he’s just stating his sadness about a friend.
See why both the left and the right have gone insane? Can you seriously read the above statement and come to the conclusion that either he’s literally guilty of obstruction of justice OR that he’s just making a casual friendly statement? As usual, the answer is somewhere in the middle. It sounds to me like Trump indeed wanted Comey to stop the investigation, but he didn’t technically “order’ anything; he instead was making one of his usual stupid, from-the-gut, off-the-cuff statements where he speaks before he thinks.
Anyway, as I’ll soon explain, none of this matters.
Comey refused to end any investigation. A few weeks after this, Trump fired Comey, completely out of the blue, without telling anyone in his inner circle, including the clownish press secretary Sean Spicer, who literally hid in the bushes away from the press, since he had no information on any of this and had no idea what to say.
Trump responded to all of this by murdering innocent civilians by bombing Syria for no reason. Thanks, Trump. You’re now a murderous piece of shit, just like Obama and Bush before you. I’m so glad he’s for America First and is going to get us out of the Middle East. Oh wait…
There’s a lot more to this story and I’m only scratching the surface. The bottom line is that this all looks really bad for Trump, a dishonest authoritarian with zero emotional control who supports government health care, hates freedom of speech, and is terrified you might find out what’s in his tax returns. Poking around the internet in the last week or two, I’ve noticed that even Trump’s most die-hard defenders are having a tough time explaining all of this.
I don’t know all the facts, and neither do you, but it’s obvious to me that A) Trump is guilty of something inappropriate and likely illegal, and B) he’s not behaving very competently at hiding it. That’s just my guess based on everything I’m seeing; feel free to draw your own conclusions.
This brings me to the issue of impeachment. When Trump was first elected, some left-wingers were screaming that he’d be impeached. I didn’t buy it and placed his odds of impeachment at 5% or less.
About two weeks ago, when more details of this story kept being leaked by the FBI (who hates Trump, and the FBI is not a good enemy to have), I raised this to 20%. As of today I place the odds of Trump getting removed from office (or voluntarily resigning before things get really bad, al la Nixon) at 25%.
This is the highest odds I’ve ever given a president for this in my lifetime. Even when Clinton was being impeached, I guessed he only had a 20% chance of actually being removed from office.
Here’s why I think there’s a 25% chance Trump’s days are numbered:
1. It doesn’t matter if he’s guilty or not. Let me repeat that for the Trump defenders: it doesn’t matter if Trump is guilty or not. The reason is that if they actually get Trump into a deposition where he has to give statements under oath, he will lie, and that will be the end of him. For all of his positive Alpha Male qualities, Trump is also a pathological liar, and there’s absolutely no way in hell that he’ll be able to tell the truth if he’s under deposition for three hours. Ha! He’ll lie, his enemies will fact-check, he’ll get caught, and congress will impeach his ass just like they impeached Clinton for lying under oath. (Though like Clinton, Trump may not actually be removed from office; thus my guess of 25% instead of something like 50% or higher.)
Seriously. If Trump ever is forced into a scenario where he has to speak at length while he’s under oath, he’s fucked. Just watch.
2. All the Democrats in congress are against him. They’re not in power right now, but with Trump’s historically low approval ratings, they likely will be right back in power when the 2018 midterm elections arrive. (This is to say nothing of the real danger: our next president after Trump/Pence. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, I don’t know who that will be yet, but I know he/she will be a true and open socialist, as I predicted a long time ago.)
3. Most of the elites are against him, and always have been. They’d love to see him go.
4. Many Republicans in congress are also against him. Worse, as far as I know, no Republicans in congress are against Mike Pence, and would happily see Pence as president instead of Trump. Unlike Trump, Pence is an establishment corporatist and a religious extremist. Oh, Republican elites would love that shit.
That’s how I see things at the moment. If I had more time, I’d do some research on which stocks might spike upward or downward if/when Trump is removed from office, and buy or short them, but I really don’t have time, this time around anyway, to take advantage of my nation’s further collapse. (My bitcoin gains will have to do.)
Granted, 25% isn’t very much, but it’s more than I originally expected. And here’s the interesting thing; we’re only five months into Trump’s term as president. We’ve got another 3.5 years to go. Do you really think this will be the only scandal we will see with Trump?
Enjoy the decline!