Just a few weeks ago, Bitcoin was around $900. Today it’s $2200. A few days ago it was as high as $2700. What the hell? It’s now hundreds of dollars past gold, which is still floating around $1250 as it usually does.

I check the values of certain indexes and commodities every morning, and I’ve been stunned at bitcoin’s recent rise. It jacked up in value about $100 every day for several days in a row. I own a little bitcoin as a speculative investment, and I’m very happy.

There are several reasons for this surge:

1. Japan recently passed legislation to allow retailers to accept bitcoin as currency.

2. South Korea’s bitcoin usage has surged.

3. People all over the world are nervous about the recent chaos in the US with Donald Trump and in Brazil with President Temer.

4. China’s recent credit downgrade.

This all bodes very well for bitcoin.

Ethereum, the 2nd biggest cryptocurrency behind bitcoin, has also shot upwards. It was just $18 in early March. Now it’s $150(!). God damn!

My opinion regarding bitcoin remains the same. If you want to get some, go ahead, but realize it’s a speculation, not an investment. Also remember that buying something as the price is going up is usually a bad idea. You want buy something while the price is going down. Bitcoin enthusiasts say that bitcoin is already at a low, but how do they know for sure?

My guess is that bitcoin’s future is 60/40. 60% chance it becomes a de facto currency standard, explodes in value, and everyone who owns some now will be very happy. But there’s at least a 40% chance it’s actually MySpace, a cryptocurrency 1.0, and a 2.0 like Facebook is right around the corner that will eliminate and replace it. (This 2.0 could be Ethereum, which is why I own some of that too.)

Which will it be? I don’t know, but as you can see, I’m leaning in the former’s direction. The good news is that as the Western world continues to collapse, things like bitcoin will reach higher values.

If you can’t stop the collapse (which you can’t), you might as well profit on it. 🙂

9 thoughts on “Bitcoin Is On Fire!

  1. It really is exciting to see these cryptos taking off like they are and to think that we’re, potentially, still at the very beginnings of this market.

    I keep telling all my friends and family to invest at least a little bit in large cap cryptos, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, (along with precious metals) and just hold it, despite the crazy price action that happens (or doesn’t happen in regards to PMs).  Like you’ve said before, odds are good all of this is going to pay off in a big way down the line.

    Hey Caleb, quick question:  how do you typically store your cryptos?

  2. There’s people that have become millionaires or gained several hundred grand out of really small investments on ETH, as did many people with BTC years ago. Early adopters of this technology are getting heavily rewarded.

  3. Hey Caleb, quick question:  how do you typically store your cryptos?

    Normal wallet, paper wallet, and vault.

    I’m not a crypto expert so I’m sure there are probably better/safer ways to do it for buy-and-hold guys like me. If any of you bitcoin geeks are out there, feel free to advise.

    There’s people that have become millionaires or gained several hundred grand out of really small investments on ETH, as did many people with BTC years ago. Early adopters of this technology are getting heavily rewarded.

    Yes indeed. The problem is that there is no technique to being an early adopter; it’s 99% luck. Everybody who bought every new cryptocurrency in the last several years all thought they’d take off like bitcoin, even the currencies that have vanished or gone nowhere.

    There is some technique involved in being a “second place adopter,” guys like me who wait for the early adopters to take a bloodbath, then quickly step in before everyone else to take advantage of the most likely winners.

  4. Long term I am positive at the future of cryptos.

    *This* particular run up I feel, is a bubble and I think it’s partially being sustained by Ponzi schemes like Galdiacoin. A hard correction will probably take place and that’s going to be the time to jump in.

  5. *This* particular run up I feel, is a bubble and I think it’s partially being sustained by Ponzi schemes like Galdiacoin.

    It’s possible. Both bitcoin and Ethereum have been dropping since about Thursday. I guess we’ll see.

    A hard correction will probably take place and that’s going to be the time to jump in.

    Yeah, possible. However, for long-term buy-and-hold guys like me, buying during a correction doesn’t matter as much. I intend on holding my bitcoin for 5-10 years, and the only reason I own it is on the outside chance that it does something crazy good; not just going up $1000 in value, but if it goes to $20,000 in value (so a few hundred bucks in value isn’t going to be an issue at that point). And if it doesn’t, that’s okay too. It’s a pure speculation.

  6. Hey Caleb,

    There’s a factor not many people have been talking about concerning both the surge in Bitcoin popularity and the surges in value that have been occurring.

    Both China and India have huge, well-trained geek populations, and both countries have imposed restrictions on taking money out of the country.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/15/india-rupee-restriction-boost-bitcoin-digital-currency.html

    http://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/energy_watch/china-clamps-down-on-currency-flows-01232017104537.html

    Bitcoin is becoming a major way for people to get money out of these countries.

    There are opportunities for Bitcoin nerds who live in countries with lots of wealthy people who want to move currency abroad, or deal with craziness like the currency note ban last year in India. Consulting with techno-challenged people who want to learn how to use Bitcoin can be a great way to earn some income.

  7. Simple math dictates that any crypto which survives the ICO and bloodbath stages, and then goes on to prove that it has some type of innovation, will be a great investment.

    Total daily market volume for Crypto right now is under 4 bn USD. FX markets do 7-9 Trn USD daily. That’s about a massive 2000 times more investment and speculation in Fiat currency with no backing that can be printed, manipulated, inflated. Comparing FX and digital fiat currencies like BTC, ETH, Stratis, and others, there is still a massive amount of growth to go in this market.

    As someone who looks into the future; is it more or less likely that Crypto will be more integrated into society or not?

    My bet is that it will, and therefore this is like buying early Microsoft or Facebook stock.

    It’s very likely that more interest will gather. It’s unlikely it just dies a slow death and goes away, to be consumed by the existing political and economic and social order.

    One thing we know from the past 10 years is that economics, politics, and society are all in flux.

     

  8. Can I recommend Monero? It is effectively untraceable thanks to different cryptography, whose use case will only become more relevant with time (it is already accepted in deep web markets). It has a strong developer team that all but runs away from marketing and propaganda.

    Right now it might look expensive (like any altcoin these days) but notice it has history of being far less volatile thanks to its solid community frowning upon pump’n’dumps.

    There will be as many Monero as Bitcoins, so my general advice is buying as many Moneros as Bitcoins now that they are less than 2% of Bitcoin’s price.

  9. There’s a relatively new cryptocurrency called IOTA https://blog.iota.org/a-primer-on-iota-with-presentation-e0a6eb2cc621 which has not yet hit exchanges (it will within the next few weeks). It’s designed for the internet-of-things, but solves many of bitcoin’s issues so can be used as a currency. It has no fees, 2-3 second transfers, and performs better the more people that use it, so it’s massively scalable.

    It might not be at the second level adopter phase yet, but it’s past early adopter and still has large upside.

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