The most entertaining presidential election I’ve ever seen continues! Time to lay odds on the Republican winner.
First I’ll repeat what I said earlier, in that we will have no idea who the winners of the primaries are (on either side) until March 15th at the very earliest. So I’m not “calling it” for anyone. I’m just laying odds, as usual.
Amazingly, based on all the data I’m seeing, Donald Trump has a 70% chance of winning the Republican nomination. Perhaps 80%, but I’m not willing to go quite that high. Yet.
As of today, here are the factors that favor Trump:
- According to the polls, he has won literally every debate the Republicans have had. I’ve never seen this happen. Trump’s outsider status and uber-Alpha demeanor is resonating with angry Republicans despite his massive and plentiful negatives. Even in the last debate where Robot Rubio actually rattled Trump a little, Trump still won the debate (according to the polls). He even wins debates when he makes huge, left-wing attack statements like we were lied into war and Bush didn’t keep us safe (both of which are true by the way).
- Every time he makes a controversial statement or gaff, his poll numbers either go up or stay the same. So far, he’s been immune to the usual things that sink traditional candidates.
- Votes that would normally be going to one establishment candidate (Rubio) are being artificially split by Ted Cruz remaining in the race. Normally, Trump would be facing a very difficult battle between himself and one guy with all the elite’s support and votes. But because psycho attention whore Cruz won’t quit, he’s sucking a good 40-50% of Rubio’s votes from him, making it easier for a Trump win.
- He currently has far more delegates than any other candidate by far. It’s not even close. That doesn’t matter much until Super Tuesday, but…
- Most importantly, on Super Tuesday tomorrow, Trump is ahead in the polls in 8 out of the 11 states voting. Isn’t that amazing? In most of those states, he’s not just ahead, but he’s leading by big, double-digit leads. If someone like Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, or Marco Rubio had this kind of status at this date, the entire mainstream media would be declaring the election over and all the other candidates would be leaving the race. But since the elites hate Trump, you’re not hearing any of this stuff, and the battle rages on.
Why am I saying 70% and not 100% or 90% like many excited Trump supporters? Well, it’s because I’m objective. Here’s the factors currently against Trump, and they aren’t small:
- Though so far he hasn’t been taken down by controversy, that doesn’t mean he can’t. Trump has numerous, and I mean numerous time bombs about things he’s said and done both recently and in his distant past that could sink him once the elites start to dig into his past and really go after him.
- His unfavorable ratings are sky-high, more than (I believe) any other presidential candidate in modern history. Some people love him, but a hell of a lot of people hate him, including Republicans. He strongly appeals to an angry, nationalist, right wing demographic, but as I’ve said many times, the US is a left-wing country now, and that demographic is now a minority. I’m also referring to many Republicans when I say “left-wing.” The concept that modern-day Republicans are for small government is laughable.
- The Ted Cruz thing swings both ways. The instant Ted Cruz leaves the race (the odds are good he will before Rubio), Robot Rubio’s vote count instantly doubles, or close to it, making him a threat to Trump in ways he isn’t right now. The reverse applies if Rubio leaves the race before Cruz does.
- Lastly, as I’ve been saying all along, the elites will do everything in their considerable power to stop Trump, including breaking the rules and the law. So far, the elites have been wasting their time taking down the other candidates and backing the biggest beta male on Earth (Jeb Bush). Now, in the last week or so, this slumbering giant has just started to train its cannons directly at Trump. They have a long time to take Trump down (until June!). The elites have won every presidential election in my lifetime, and done so easily, so they can’t be counted out.
I will reiterate that I don’t support Trump. He’s an authoritarian and a nationalist, both of which are the opposite of individual freedom and small goverment which is what I prefer. The US is also an unrepairable sinking ship regardless of who becomes president at this point, including Trump. But I do admit that having the elites lose would be a good thing.
I love the entertainment! All this Trump drama, and Bernie, and the Lizard Queen…it’s a front row seat at the biggest disaster show in history. George Carlin was right.