How wrong can political pundits be? Very wrong.
Think minorities hate Trump and love Bernie Sanders because that’s what all the pundits say? Then you would be wrong. In Bernie’s case, very wrong.
Let’s look at Trump first.
There aren’t a lot of polls that sort their questions by race, and when they do there are sufficiently few non-white Republicans that they have trouble getting a good sample size. Nevertheless, the ones we have suggest that Donald Trump’s supporters are about as diverse as any other Republican’s and maybe moreso.
An August YouGov poll with a sample of 30 Hispanic Republicans finds Trump in the lead with that demographic, getting 28% of the vote to runner-up Ben Carson’s 19%. A Gravis poll with about 40 Hispanic Republicans finds Trump with 37% of their vote to runner-up Marco Rubio’s 20%. A Nevada poll also finds Trump leading among Hispanics in that state, though I don’t know their Hispanic Republican sample size. And finally, head-to-head matchups of Trump vs. Clinton show Trump outperforming some past Republican candidates, including Mitt Romney and George Bush, in the share of Hispanic votes he would likely receive.
Probably more useful are the head-to-head Trump vs. Hillary polls, which survey all blacks (not just Republicans). One finds Trump doing shockingly well and tripling Romney’s (admittedly minuscule, admittedly decreased by opposing Obama) level of support among black voters, but the Washington Post is skeptical and cites others with less extreme results – although even most of those show Trump doing at least as well as Romney and other historical Republicans.
In other words, the media narrative that Trump is doing some kind of special appeal-to-white-voters voodoo is unsupported by any polling data.
Now let’s deal with Bernie, where things get even more interesting.
Only 13% of Hispanics support Sanders, compared to 63% for Hillary. And only 4% of blacks support Sanders, compared to 64% for Hillary!
CNN finds that the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat among whites (48-47) but that Hillary has an overwhelming advantage among blacks (84-7).
This explains a couple of otherwise mysterious things. How is Sanders on track to win in Iowa and New Hampshire when he is losing so badly nationally? Well, because Iowa and New Hampshire are two of the whitest states in the country. And how come I keep hearing people say “I’m sure Sanders will win, because even though the media and Big Business support Hillary, everybody I know supports Sanders”? Well, are those people white? Is their entire friend group white? Do they live in very strongly white areas? Then Sanders probably has much higher support among their friends and neighbors than he does nationally.
But the current election brings all three splits into near-alignment. The quasi-socialists, whites, and enlightened professionals generally support Sanders. The social justice activists, nonwhites, and poor people generally support Clinton – this bizarre situation of the guy most vocal about helping the least fortunate getting support from everyone except the least fortunate themselves.
Isn’t that amazing? This means that if you believe the standard left-wing punditry that you need the support of minorities to win elections, then nationwide there is literally no chance of Bernie beating Hillary. None!
Left-wingers are treating Bernie like some kind of Messiah (sound familair?) but according to the data, all this hoopla about Bernie Sanders is utterly useless.
It’s almost as if blacks and Hispanics are programmed to automatically support anyone with “Clinton” as their last name, no matter how evil they are. Read the rest of the above linked article for sources and further analysis. Very interesting.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Bernie Sanders is the left-wing Ron Paul. He’s an old guy who’s ideologically pure, who turns on a lot of young people, and who has exactly zero chance of being elected president. This is because A) the elites won’t allow it and B) the voting populace is too irrational. I mean, I don’t want Bernie, but if you put a gun to my head I’d take Bernie the Socialist over Hillary the Lizard Queen. But both the elites and the lower-class disagree with me, so soon it will be All Hail Our New Scaly Ruler (unless something unusual happens).
I loved Ron Paul, but even with a guy I love, when he was running I was telling my libertarian buddies he had no chance in hell of winning, so it was pointless to get excited. And I was right. And I’m right about Bernie not winning too.
Whatever! The decline is getting really fun to watch!